Donald Trump’s campaign is having a ball watching Joe Biden brazenly defy calls from the media and Democrats to exit the presidential race following his humiliating CNN debate performance. The chaos engulfing the Democratic Party is fueling Trump’s confidence that he will beat Biden in a historic landslide, sources close to the Trump campaign told me. “They’re spiking the football,” a prominent Republican said.
The celebration in Trumpworld is happening largely in private. A campaign official said the strategy is to let headlines about Biden’s cognitive decline dominate the news cycle. “We can do the basement strategy too,” joked a Republican close to the campaign, referring to Biden’s low-key 2020 campaign.
While Trump has kept a relatively low profile of late—at least for him–he mocked Biden during a rambling speech Tuesday night in Florida and said the Democratic Party was “divided in chaos” and “having a full-scale breakdown.” He also offered Biden a chance to “redeem himself” in a debate this week that would be “no holds barred.” (The next scheduled debate is in September on ABC.)
Behind the scenes, Trump allies are openly talking about their incredible good fortune. “Biden is the first Democrat in 24 years to be behind in the popular vote as late as July—and it’s only gonna get worse. He’s cooked,” the Republican close to the campaign said. “And imagine what happens if his cognitive condition worsens before the election? It will be an absolute bloodbath.”
According to two sources, Trump advisers project Trump could win 30 states in November. If current polling holds, the Trump campaign expects to win battlegrounds such as Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. “The Biden collapse is real,” said a 2020 Trump campaign veteran who remains close to the former president. “Could this be a landslide like [Barack] Obama beating [John] McCain in 2008?” (In that election, Obama won 365 electoral votes.) One Republican I spoke with marveled at how Biden is following the Trump playbook: attack the media, deny the truth, and refuse to back down. “It’s downright Trumpian,” the source said. On Monday night, Trump told Sean Hannity that the strategy would work. “Unless he says, ‘I’m getting out,’ there’s nothing they can do to get him out,” Trump said.
So far Biden has effectively kept down any full-scale Democratic revolt, with still only a smattering of elected officials publicly calling on him to step aside. On Tuesday night, though, Senator Michael Bennet warned of a Republican “landslide” if Biden stays in, while Rep. Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday on MSNBC that Biden needs to “decide if he is going to run,” hardly a show of support from the former House Speaker and one of the party’s leaders. (Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Kamala Harris was on the road in Las Vegas, making the case against Trump’s radical, right-wing agenda and framing voters’ choice as being between “freedom, compassion, and rule of law” and “chaos, fear, and hate.”)
The Democratic upheaval is playing out ahead of Republicans gathering next week in Milwaukee for the party’s nominating convention. According to sources close to the campaign, Trump’s preparing to announce his vice presidential pick, perhaps as early as this weekend. One source said the intense focus on Biden’s age gives Ohio’s 39-year-old senator, J.D. Vance, an edge. “J.D. hits multiple demographics that Trump likes. He would be the second-youngest vice president in history, and that puts the youth vote much more in play. In Ohio, he won suburban neighborhoods and independents. Trump needs both of those to win.”
A spokesperson for the Trump campaign declined to comment.
More Great Stories From Vanity Fair
Burning at Both Ends: Surviving a Week in Wildfire-Torn Los Angeles
MAGA-verse’s Clash of Titans
Lucy Liu Has No Regrets on Speaking Out About Bill Murray
Prince Harry Planted a Ticking Time Bomb Under the Murdoch Empire
Mark Zuckerberg Doubles Down on the MAGA-fication of Meta
Inside Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing
Alan Cumming Needs to Be Psychiatrically Evaluated
The Biggest Snubs and Surprises From the 2025 SAG Awards Nominations
The Best Rom-Coms of All Time
From the Archive: Portraits of Picasso’s Marriage